Adds the engine/polymarket module — the prediction-market side of the
platform, deliberately slow-cadence (markets move on events and news, not
ticks):

- Discovery: refresh_markets pulls the top-volume active markets from the
  public Gamma API into a local prediction_market catalogue (upsert by
  condition id); list/search/watch APIs under /api/polymarket power the
  market browser. Migration 0023.
- AI bet analysis: analyze_market packs a market's question, prices, time
  to resolution and news headlines matched to the question's keywords
  (new news.service.search), asks the configured writer LLM for a strict
  -JSON probability estimate, and stores the edge (estimate minus market
  price) as a market_analysis row. Usage recorded as purpose=polymarket
  under the daily AI spend cap.
- Screening: run_screening_cycle analyses the watchlist plus the top-N
  markets every N hours; an analysis clearing the operator's edge and
  confidence bars becomes a pending AISignal (Telegram + dashboard) that
  executes through the existing risk-gated confirmation path.
- Resolution sync: watched/held markets are re-checked hourly; on
  resolution the position settles at 1/0 USDC directly into the
  sub-ledger (redemption, not an order) and the operator is alerted.
- Settings: polymarket_{refresh,research}_hours, edge threshold, min
  confidence, screen top-N and stake — readable/updatable via
  /api/settings (PUT /api/settings/polymarket).

https://claude.ai/code/session_01RGKRo1Xjvhv9UMsQMpNvNj

Adds PredictionAIStrategy — automated trading on AI-found edge. It
subclasses AIStrategy so the engine's existing AI machinery (per-strategy
provider/model resolution, daily spend cap, usage recording and the
notify/auto action mode) applies unchanged:

- Each tick it reads the latest stored bet analysis for its token's
  market, re-running the AI at a configurable cadence when stale; enters
  when the token's edge clears edge_threshold with min_confidence, exits
  when the edge is gone. NO tokens mirror the stored YES edge.
- Closed/resolved markets are never traded — the resolution sync settles
  held tokens at 1/0.
- Registered as a pickable type; StrategyType gains a `venue` pin
  (prediction_ai → polymarket) enforced by build_strategy and surfaced
  via /api/strategies/types, and kind=="AI" checks become
  isinstance(AIStrategy) so the subclass inherits model config, seeding
  and the read model.

https://claude.ai/code/session_01RGKRo1Xjvhv9UMsQMpNvNj

…yses

- New Polymarket page (route + sidebar entry): browse the discovered
  markets most-traded first with search and an All/Watchlist scope, pin
  markets to the AI's watchlist, and open a detail panel showing the
  latest AI bet analysis — estimated probability vs market price, edge,
  confidence and reasoning, with the recent-analysis trail. Admins can
  refresh the catalogue and run a one-off "Analyze now".
- Strategies page: venue selector on the create form (locked when a type
  is pinned, e.g. Prediction AI → Polymarket); Polymarket token-id
  symbols stay case-sensitive and render truncated with a venue badge.
- Settings page: Polymarket card for the discovery/screening cadence,
  edge threshold, min confidence, screen top-N and suggested stake. The
  Polymarket credential form comes from the generic per-venue renderer.
- lib/api/polymarket.ts client; OpenAPI schema + generated types
  regenerated.

https://claude.ai/code/session_01RGKRo1Xjvhv9UMsQMpNvNj

- polymarket-setup.md: drop the "not yet selectable" warning; document the
  section's features (discovery, AI bet analysis, suggestions, Prediction
  AI, resolution settlement), the five stored credential fields and the
  Sim-fallback behaviour in Testnet mode.
- abstraction.md: document per-strategy venue routing.
- README / docs index / api-features / research status: Binance-only
  framing becomes Binance + Polymarket; roadmap Phase 8 marked in
  progress.
- CHANGELOG: Unreleased "Added" entry for the whole section.

https://claude.ai/code/session_01RGKRo1Xjvhv9UMsQMpNvNj